You now have the whole regime model, and everything the analysis takes is already in your hands from the previous lesson and readings: read the three states, price each technique's basket against the regime's price table, and ask which channel (usefulness, evidence, direct) its payoff flows through.
All portfolio answers in this module take a three-part shape:
- The allocation: how effort splits across the available techniques
- The margin: where the next unit of effort goes, and through what mechanism
- The binding constraint: the one allocation the team would trade any other for
Module 2 long exercises
Now run the machinery yourself. Each scenario gives you the three states: the misalignment world you are probably in, the capability stage you are approaching, and the plan you start under. From that, make the call this module has been building toward: where does the next unit of effort go?
Alongside the three states, each regime names the capability stage it is approaching in the AI Futures Model's milestones and the initial plan it starts under, in the sense of Plans A, B, C, and D for misalignment risk>. Roughly, A = a strong international agreement buys a long slowdown, B = the government treats buying lead time as a national-security priority, C = the leading lab spends its few-months lead on safety without government help, D = leadership isn't taking the risk seriously and a small safety team works with what it has.