Writing prompt

Pick one area of control work and construct an explicit causal chain from work starting today to reduced existential risk.

Free response

Part 1 — Constructing a theory of change. Choose one area of control work from the post, or a specific project within one. Construct a causal chain from work beginning today to a reduction in existential risk. Then, answer the following questions:

What does the work create? Why is producing it feasible now, given that current models may be too weak to make the work informative?
Where will the output of this work be used and how? Why would this work be adopted by these groups?
Are there any constants that need to exist in order for this work to still apply in the future? Can any future advancements make this work obsolete.
Which threat does the work directly target & why does it hold up against a model trying to subvert it?
How does this reduce x-risk?

Your response

0 words · min 200 · max 600

Rubric

Link-by-link mechanism — Each link states its connection to the previous one & is relatively detailed.
Adoption — Mentions the adoption concerns mentioned earlier in the text (politicking, siloing, alignment taxes, inside-company work).
Threats — The chain ends with a specific threat & the answers says why the work survives an adversarial model.