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ExercisesWriting prompt

Writing prompt

Find the link in your theory-of-change chain you trust least, and name the observations that would raise or lower your confidence.

Free response

Part 2 — Identifying a crux. Identify the link in the earlier causal chain that you believe has the lowest chance of occurring.

Then answer:

Why this link?
Name potential observations that would raise and lower your confidence in the link.
If this link was untrue, would the case for prioritizing this area collapse?
Is there another causal chain that avoids this link?

Your response

0 words · min 120 · max 450

Rubric

Load-bearing crux — The chosen link is the weakest in the chain.
Evidence — Names observations that would raise and lower confidence.
Failure Analysis — Answers if there's another causal chain that avoids this link and if the link destroys the current case.

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