Safety over a deployment @ Tracks

Safety over a deployment

Per-attack odds compound over a whole deployment, run directly on the paper's contingency-table odds (caught 33.8%, successfully deployed 18.3%). Drag the number of attacks and watch the two factors of the red team's win probability climb toward the ceiling.

Number of attacks over the deployment (k)2

Red team win probability vs number of attacks

From the table: caught 33.8% · successfully deployed 18.3%

Term A35%×Term B77%=P(red wins)27%