The decomposition

Decomposition of P(unacceptable).

The decomposition

Decomposition of P(unacceptable).

P(unacceptable) = P(unacceptable | scheming) · P(scheming) + P(unacceptable | ¬scheming) · P(¬scheming)

scheming route 15.0%non-scheming route 3.5%

P(scheming)30.0%

P(unacceptable | scheming)50.0%

P(unacceptable | ¬scheming)5.0%

Minimizing this conditional is the control agenda — unacceptable meaning catastrophic and irreversible.

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