The detection race: concentrated vs diffuse failures
A schemer needs C bad actions for catastrophe; each has chance q of being noticed and a response fires at the K-th notice. Drag the three levers to see who wins the race, the expected damage bill, and the three regimes from the post.
The detection race: concentrated vs diffuse failures
A schemer needs C bad actions for catastrophe; each has chance q of being noticed and a response fires at the K-th notice. Drag the three levers to see who wins the race, the expected damage bill, and the three regimes from the post.
P(response before catastrophe), by C
100%
Expected bad actions before response, by q
300
Response in time
99.7%
Expected damage at response
300 actions
Regime
Caught in time
The response reliably fires before the catastrophe threshold: the diffuse regime, where asynchronous review and training have time to work.The schemer's pace has no slider: acting more slowly delays detection and catastrophe by the same factor, so the race outcome depends only on C, q, and K. Expected damage before the response is K/q, independent of the threat's concentration.
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