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Gains from trade with an early schemer

Adjust the outcome probabilities of the illustrative cooperate/sabotage table and the credibility of our promise to pay; the chart shows the range of offers that beats both the AI's sabotage option and our no-deal odds.

Humans dominateEarly AI dominatesLater AIs dominateAI cooperates90%10%AI sabotages50%49%Offer size (share of future resources)0%25%50%75%100%AI's minimum 1.1%our maximum 44%

Any offer between 1.1% and 44% of future resources beats both sides' no-deal alternatives. Lowering credibility raises the AI's minimum — a less credible promise must be compensated with a more generous offer.