The attack-rate hump
The red team's win probability against how often it attacks, decomposed into its two terms. Attack rarely and a decisive attack attempt may never occur (Term B small); attack often and the pool dilutes with worse, more-visible opportunities (Term A falls) — so the optimum is interior.
The attack-rate hump
The red team's win probability against how often it attacks, decomposed into its two terms. Attack rarely and a decisive attack attempt may never occur (Term B small); attack often and the pool dilutes with worse, more-visible opportunities (Term A falls) — so the optimum is interior.
The two terms, and their product, vs attack rate
Per attack attempt, averaged over the pool above the cutoff:
Caught by monitor c
45.4%
Successfully deployed s
21.1%
Attack rate r
11.3%
Problems N
5,000
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